Mapping the UK Business Landscape and Growth Predictions

Trading companies were asked how their turnover in January 2026 compared to December 2025, omitting any seasonal trading. Data are outlined in the middle of the duration of each wave. Nearly a third (31%) of trading organizations reported that their turnover had reduced in January 2026 compared to the previous month.

The movements are broadly in line with those observed around this time in previous years, with peaks in December followed by small falls in January. The industries with the highest proportion reporting that turnover reduced in January 2026 were: the lodging and food service activities industry (52%, which is a 21 percentage point increase from December 2025) the other services industry (45%) the arts, home entertainment and recreation industry (40%) Roughly 16% of trading businesses reported that their turnover increased in January 2026, which was a 3 percentage point increase compared to December 2025.

For trading businesses with 10 or more staff members, 33% reported that their turnover had actually decreased, which was broadly stable compared to December and January 2025. More than one in 5 (23%) businesses reported that their turnover had actually increased, up 2 portion points compared to December 2025. Normally, the proportion of services reporting that their turnover increased correlated to the size of the business.

The exception to this was the percentage for organizations with 250 or more employees, which was 25%, and 5 percentage points lower than December 2025 (30%). Trading businesses were asked how they anticipate their turnover to change in the coming month. This can then be used to forecast how the service's turnover will actually alter as soon as that calendar month concludes.

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Patterns in between predicted turnover and real turnover have actually broadly moved in the very same direction, the movements for expectations tend to be bigger. Caution must be taken when interpreting expectations questions, as the workers reacting on behalf of businesses might not have complete oversight of all of their service's future expectations.

ANSR July UK PRs

More than one in five (21%) trading services expect their turnover to increase in March 2026. This is a 6 percentage point increase from February 2026 but was broadly steady compared to expectations for March 2025 (22%). The percentage of trading organizations anticipating an increase in January 2026 was 13%, while the proportion that reported a real increase in turnover in January 2026 was 16%, recommending a minor pessimism in organizations expectations.

However, the patterns have actually broadly followed each other since the questions were presented in April 2022. The results for March 2026 follow the pattern from previous years, with the percentage of companies expecting turnover to increase peaking after a decrease in January. Larger businesses were more likely to expect an increase in turnover in March, with the proportion varying from 20% for companies with 0 to 9 workers, to 42% for businesses with 100 to 249 staff members.

For presentational functions, some response alternatives have actually been removed. Information are plotted in the middle of the period of each wave.

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The percentage of trading services that expected a decline in January 2026 was 25%, while the proportion that reported a real decline in turnover in January 2026 was 31%. The proportion of companies anticipating turnover to reduce for a specific month ahead of time has remained significantly lower than the percentage of services reporting a real reduction because month since April 2022.

Expectations for turnover to decrease have regularly followed the exact same trend, as real reported turnover decreases throughout this time. Trading services were asked what obstacles, if any, were impacting their turnover in early February 2026. Around 3 in 10 (30%) trading businesses reported that financial uncertainty was having an effect on their turnover, which was broadly steady with early January 2026.

This is broadly stable compared to early January 2026 and 2 percentage points down compared to a year earlier. For trading businesses with 10 or more workers, expense of labour was the most frequently reported difficulty, at 36%. This was broadly stable compared to early January 2026. Organizations with 10 to 49 employees were most likely to report cost of labour as a challenge than businesses with 250 or more employees (37%, compared to 20%). One in five (20%) trading businesses with 10 or more workers showed that they were not currently experiencing any turnover obstacles in early February 2026. Additional information on financial performance, including all reaction alternatives categorised by market and size band, are available in our accompanying dataset.