Modern Capital Market Shifts Impactful for 2026 Growth

Trading companies were asked how their turnover in January 2026 compared with December 2025, leaving out any seasonal trading. Information are plotted in the middle of the duration of each wave. Nearly a 3rd (31%) of trading companies reported that their turnover had actually decreased in January 2026 compared with the previous month.

The motions are broadly in line with those observed around this time in previous years, with peaks in December followed by small falls in January. The industries with the greatest proportion reporting that turnover reduced in January 2026 were: the lodging and food service activities market (52%, which is a 21 percentage point rise from December 2025) the other services market (45%) the arts, home entertainment and entertainment market (40%) Approximately 16% of trading organizations reported that their turnover increased in January 2026, which was a 3 portion point increase compared with December 2025.

For trading companies with 10 or more staff members, 33% reported that their turnover had actually reduced, which was broadly stable compared with December and January 2025. More than one in 5 (23%) companies reported that their turnover had increased, up 2 portion points compared to December 2025. Generally, the percentage of services reporting that their turnover increased correlated to the size of business.

The exception to this was the percentage for organizations with 250 or more workers, which was 25%, and 5 portion points lower than December 2025 (30%). Trading businesses were asked how they anticipate their turnover to change in the coming month. This can then be used to forecast how the business's turnover will actually change when that calendar month concludes.

New UK Capital Trends Supporting Mid-Market Enterprises

Trends between predicted turnover and real turnover have broadly moved in the very same instructions, the movements for expectations tend to be larger. Caution needs to be taken when interpreting expectations concerns, as the employees responding on behalf of organizations may not have full oversight of all of their organization's future expectations.

ANSR July UK PRs

More than one in five (21%) trading services anticipate their turnover to increase in March 2026. This is a 6 percentage point increase from February 2026 however was broadly stable compared with expectations for March 2025 (22%). The proportion of trading organizations anticipating a boost in January 2026 was 13%, while the proportion that reported an actual boost in turnover in January 2026 was 16%, recommending a slight pessimism in businesses expectations.

Nevertheless, the patterns have broadly followed each other because the concerns were introduced in April 2022. The outcomes for March 2026 follow the pattern from previous years, with the portion of services anticipating turnover to increase peaking after a decline in January. Larger organizations were more likely to anticipate an increase in turnover in March, with the percentage varying from 20% for businesses with 0 to 9 staff members, to 42% for organizations with 100 to 249 workers.

For presentational functions, some response choices have been eliminated. Data are outlined in the middle of the period of each wave.

Sustainable Finance and Ethical Supply Chains Shaping Strategy

The percentage of trading services that expected a decrease in January 2026 was 25%, while the percentage that reported an actual reduction in turnover in January 2026 was 31%. The percentage of services anticipating turnover to decrease for a specific month ahead of time has actually remained substantially lower than the proportion of services reporting a real reduction because month considering that April 2022.

Expectations for turnover to decrease have consistently followed the exact same pattern, as real reported turnover decreases throughout this time. Trading businesses were asked what obstacles, if any, were affecting their turnover in early February 2026. Around 3 in 10 (30%) trading companies reported that economic uncertainty was having an influence on their turnover, which was broadly stable with early January 2026.

This is broadly steady compared with early January 2026 and 2 percentage points down compared to a year back. For trading companies with 10 or more employees, expense of labour was the most frequently reported challenge, at 36%. This was broadly steady compared to early January 2026. Organizations with 10 to 49 staff members were more likely to report expense of labour as an obstacle than companies with 250 or more workers (37%, compared to 20%). One in 5 (20%) trading services with 10 or more staff members showed that they were not presently experiencing any turnover obstacles in early February 2026. Further information on financial performance, including all reaction alternatives categorised by market and size band, are readily available in our accompanying dataset.